.png&w=3840&q=75)
Blog • December 12, 2025 - Valentin Rousseau
Since the institutionalization of the bitcoin mining industry in 2021, marked by the rise of public miners, the network hashrate skyrocketed. This uptrend was spurred by two main catalysts: ASIC efficiency leaps and the build-out of large-scale power infrastructure.
Though the growing push for AI and HPC power demand reshapes the Bitcoin mining landscape, the network hashrate should rally to new heights. Examining a series of hashrate scenarios and expanding on mining economics, this report provides an outlook of the mining industry by the end of 2028.
To portray how the hashrate may evolve in a post-halving environment we first looked at the power capacity. Using Cambridge data from 2017 through 2025, an empirical analysis shows that on average miners annually energised 3.0 gigawatts (GW). Delving deeper into the data, the chart reveals a sharp acceleration in recent years: 2024 and 2025 alone powered 11.5 GW of mining rigs against 12.4 GW over the entire 2018 – 2023 period.
Stepping back, it appears that this unprecedented expansion should be attributed to highly favorable market conditions along with an improvement in regulatory clarity, particularly in the United States. Following China’s clampdown on mining in 2020, the Uncle Same became the new hotspot for miners, marking a new area for this industry.
From 2023 to 2025, miners added an average of 4.8 GW of new capacity annually, with 2025 marking a particularly aggressive buildout of 6.5 GW. Looking ahead, we estimate that annual energization will likely range between 2.9 GW and 6.9 GW, broadly consistent with the three-year average and reflecting both tightening power markets, competing with HPC/AI appetite for power, and the expanding footprint of private operators over their public peers.
Network efficiency is poised to improve materially by 2028 as next-generation ASICs push into single-digit joules per terahash, coinciding with the structural demand shock implied by the 5th halving. Under efficiency assumptions of 10.0–12.5 J/TH and cumulative energized capacity of 33–45 GW, the implied network hashrate converges to a mean estimate of 3 487 EH.
Turning to hashprice dynamics, we estimate that under a network hashrate range of 2 750–4 250 EH and a Bitcoin price band of $300,000–$500,000, the mean implied hashprice converges to $26.3 per PH/s. This projection assumes transactions fees stabilize at 3.0% of total block rewards over the period, consistent with current weak on-chain activity (read our latest article on low fee environment).
The table below exhibits the potential hashcost outcomes across a broad spectrum of efficiency and power-cost assumptions. Under baseline conditions—where power prices remain near the current network average of $55/MWh (all-in) and fleet efficiency stabilizes around 11.3 J/TH—the implied hashcost falls to roughly $14.85 /PH/s.
Ultimately, gross margins are expected to maintain at 43.5%, broadly in line with current levels at the time of writing—a reminder of the structural forces that continually compress profitability in an increasingly competitive mining landscape. While miners pursuing a long-term “hold” strategy may achieve higher returns through BTC appreciation, the mining economics remain fundamentally circular.
In short, periods of elevated margins trigger fleet upgrades and new capacity additions, increasing capital intensity and boosting the hashrate growth. These gains are subsequently eroded as network difficulty adjusts and, more decisively, as halving events periodically reset revenue profiles, finally pushing miners back to renew another cycle.
However, this self-reinforcing loop may begin to shift in the longer term. As efficiency improvements approach physical limits and BTC price growth struggles to match hashrate expansion, competitive pressures will intensify. Under such conditions, only operators with structurally low power costs will remain viable, while higher-cost miners will be forced offline.
If transaction fees do not rise meaningfully, this dynamic could produce a future where Bitcoin’s security budget becomes more volatile. Mining would increasingly rely on access to near-zero or negative power prices, or governmental capacity, leaving block production more sensitive to energy-market fluctuations and introducing a new phase of cyclicality in network security.
